[Desi Masala] Is India ready for Pakistan's coming collapse? - rediff

Is India ready for Pakistan's coming collapse?

http://www.rediff.com/news/2009/mar/10guest-is-india-ready-for-pakistans-coming-collapse.htm

Harsh Pant

March 10, 2009

Pakistan, a nuclear armed state of 170 million people, is facing a
virtual meltdown and its political leadership seems utterly incapable
of steering the country through the present mess. The international
community has few levers left that might have any significant impact
on the course of events. And so everyone is just waiting with bated
breath for events to unfold in what is probably the worst crisis in
Pakistan's troubled history.

Battle-lines have been drawn between the Pakistan People's Party and
the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz who had just months back decided to
come together to oust Pervez Musharraf [Images]. Their hatred for
Musharraf was perhaps the only glue that kept the coalition partners
together. Now Nawaz Sharif [Images] is finding out the Asif Ali
Zardari [Images] has turned into another Musharraf. The PPP was
waiting to get to Sharif and wrest political control of Punjab
province, the prize catch of Pakistani politics. It used the Supreme
Court to dislodge the PML-N government headed by Nawaz Sharif's
brother.

Even at a time when extremism, terrorism and economic crisis have
brought Pakistan close to being a failed state, political expediency
remains high on the agenda of the nation's politicians. The army might
be tempted to reclaim its pivotal position in Pakistani polity once
again as the competition between the PML-N and the PPP begins. The
civilian government of Zardari is neither willing nor able to tackle
the problems facing the nation head-on.

The Taliban [Images] is making inroads into the very heart of the
country and the government is making deals with the extremists in the
hope of staving off the inevitable. Yet, as the brazen attack on Sri
Lankan cricketers demonstrates, the Islamists are getting emboldened
with every failure of the government to have its writ run in the
country.

But the real trouble is emanating from Pakistan' tribal areas where
the insurgents have found a safe haven. From their sanctuaries in the
Federally Administered Tribal Area and Baluchistan, they are wreaking
havoc on the western forces fighting in Afghanistan.

As a consequence, no improvement in the security of Afghanistan is
possible without progress in the control of the Pakistani border
areas. The Pakistani government, meanwhile, has acquiesced in to the
demands of the radical Islamists and imposed Islamic law, Sharia, in
its Swat valley region which was once a popular tourist destination.
It is a dangerous concession to the Islamist extremists and would
embolden them even further to demand imposition of Islamic law in
other areas too even as it provides them with a safe haven to launch
attacks on western forces.

It is a highly dangerous situation for global security as the Taliban
rapidly makes inroads into the world's second-largest Islamic state
and one with nuclear weapons.

The Obama administration remains unconvinced of Pakistan's commitment
to fighting the Taliban, Al Qaeda [Images] and other extremist groups.
In the last few weeks, US-led forces in Afghanistan have frequently
struck targets in the Pakistan-Afghanistan border region with missiles
and even used Special Operations Forces to stem cross-border attacks
on coalition forces in Afghanistan. Pakistan also has in recent months
allowed US military trainers to provide counter-insurgency instruction
to Pakistani soldiers. But in the absence of ameliorative political
and economic measures, a purely military approach will not be enough
to stem the growth of extremism in the tribal areas.

Over the past eight years, Pakistan has received more than $10 billion
in aid from the US, ostensibly for counterterrorism operations, but
has failed to build up its institutional capabilities as it ended up
diverting a huge proportion of that aid to acquire military hardware
suited for conventional warfare vis-a-vis India. Despite accusing
Pakistan of using the massive American aid to fight the war on terror
for "preparing for a war against India", US President Barack Obama
[Images] has tripled non-military assiastance to an annual $1.5
billion while continuing with the exorbitant military aid of his
predecessor.

The underlying fragility of the state's basic institutions will
continue to haunt Pakistan and with it the entire region as well as
the West's war on Islamist extremism. Pakistan's return to democracy
remains tenuous and the authority of the government is weakening by
the day.

The state institutions -- the civilian government as well as the
military -- seem unwilling to acknowledge the obvious -- that the
threat of extremism that is haunting the very survival of Pakistan
today is the outcome of the country's long-running use of jihadist
terror as an instrument of foreign policy. Use of Islamist extremist
mobilisation and terrorism for domestic political purposes as well as
for projecting Pakistan's ambitions in its neighborhood has ended up
costing the nation dearly. Today as Pakistan continues its steady
slide towards the abyss, the international community perhaps has one
last chance. What the country needs is a thorough investment in
building its socio-political institutions from bottom-up. Without such
a restructuring of the Pakistani state, the inherent instability of
the state will continue to haunt the world.

Pakistan is no longer failing, it is already a failed state. The
sooner this is recognised, the better, for it will enable the
international community to recalibrate its existing approach toward a
nation that is, once again, 'standing in the middle of the road
between survival and disintegration'. Global security in more ways
than one is linked to security and stability in Pakistan and it is
therefore imperative for major powers to intervene and save the
world's nightmare.

Meanwhile, it goes without saying that the challenges emanating from
Pakistan will have far-reaching consequences for India. It's the
biggest strategic failure of Indian diplomacy that even after 60
years, India has not found a way to neutralise the malevolence of a
neighbour one-eighth its size. Business as usual has never been an
option for India and yet our Pakistan policy could never move beyond
cultural exchanges and cross-border trade. Pakistan has continued to
train its guns at India and drain India's diplomatic capital and
military strength and India has continued to debate whether Pakistani
musicians should be allowed to enter India.

This disconnect between Pakistan's clear strategic priority and
India's magnificently short-sighted approach will continue to exact
its toll on India unless India makes it a priority to think outside
the box on Pakistan. Today, India finds itself desperately seeking
international attention for its troubles vis-a-vis Pakistan as well as
Pakistan's own problems and when it doesn't get that attention or is
rebuffed the government behaves like a spoiled child, throwing a
tantrum and going on the defensive.

The end game that the West is seeking in Pakistan and the region is
different from the one that India seeks, despite certain congruence in
their objectives. India will have to think more clearly about its
strategic objectives vis-a-vis Pakistan and how best to achieve them.
The barbarians are at India's gates, there is no time to lose.

Harsh Pant teaches at King's College, London

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