[Desi Masala] Some Facts of Nuclear Deal

*Dr Padmanabha Krishnagopala Iyengar is a former director of India's Bhabha
Atomic Research Centre (BARC) and former chairman of the Indian Atomic
Energy Commission.*

The Indo-US nuclear deal has many misconceptions, which need to be
clarified. Some of the salient points are mentioned below and the readers
will be in the best position to make their own opinion.

*The nuclear deal is an agreement between India and the US for the US
government to supply nuclear fuel and reactors to India.*

Presently American law prohibits nuclear cooperation (by nuclear
cartel) with India because we have not signed the Non-Proliferation Treaty
(NPT). All the nuclear deal does is to grant a 'waiver' from that law, so
that American companies & other nuclear cartel countries can now pursue
nuclear trade with India. However, if India conducts a test at any time, the
waiver is revoked.

*Imported uranium and nuclear reactors will be cheap and cost-effective.*

It is governed by market forces – there are no guarantees of cheap or
competitive nuclear power. Today it will be more expensive. The cost of
uranium in the international market has gone up four-fold in the last few
years, and will rise further with further demand. Steel and other materials
used in a reactor are very costly & manpower costs are much higher in the
West. The failure Dabhol power plant has already shown us that importing
power plants from the West is costly and not viable in India.

*The nuclear deal will safeguard our energy security. *

Power from the nuclear reactors that we buy will definitely be more
expensive than indigenous nuclear power. Further, to keep the reactors
running, we will always be dependent on imported uranium, which is
controlled by a cartel – the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG). Therefore, the
nuclear deal, by making us dependent on the cartel. Only our indigenous
nuclear power programme can truly ensure our energy security. Nuclear power
will meet just 6% of our total electricity production.

*Importing nuclear plants is a quick-fix solution to the present power
crisis.*

It will be at least 8 years before we see the first power. Even if the
nuclear deal goes through, it will take time to buy and setup new reactors.
We have examples of the French reactors in China, and the Russian reactors
in Kudankulam, India. So importing reactors is certainly no quick solution.
For the short term, we will still have to rely on coal and hydroelectricity.

*The nuclear deal does not stop India from further nuclear testing, and
therefore does not compromise our national security.*

It is very clearly stated in the 123 Agreement it will be subject to
national laws, and the Hyde Act is a law of the US. The 123 Agreement very
clearly states that if India tests a nuclear device, all further nuclear
trade is to stop, and the nuclear *materials that have already been sold to
us have to be returned*. No future Indian government would dare to
jeopardise such a huge investment in nuclear power, by testing. So, for all
practical purposes the nuclear deal caps our strategic programme – which is
precisely what the Americans intend.

*We can pass a national law to counteract the Hyde Act, and this will
protect our strategic programme.*

If we pass a law saying that we will retain the right to test, it will have
no influence on the actions of the US. If and when we test, they can simply
quote the 123 Agreement and the Hyde Act, and pull out all their nuclear
materials, leaving us devastated. The only option here is to renegotiate the
123 Agreement and have the clause inserted there. However, the Americans are
unlikely to agree to this, since it goes against their non-proliferation
policy.

*The nuclear deal and the safeguards agreement give India the status of a
nuclear power. *

The IAEA safeguards agreement that has been negotiated in this deal is
closely based on the model agreement that IAEA has for *non-nuclear weapon
states*. The safeguards agreements that the nuclear weapon countries have
signed with the IAEA require them to put very few reactors under safeguards,
and allow them to take reactors out of safeguards. India, however, *will
have to place most of its reactors under safeguards* *for ever*. Therefore
we are certainly not being treated as a nuclear weapons country. The 18 July
2005 Joint Statement puts India being as an equal by the US and this is
altererd in the 123 Agreement.

*Without the nuclear deal, we cannot get adequate uranium for our domestic
nuclear programme.*

The Department of Atomic Energy has always maintained that we have enough
indigenous uranium for 10,000 MW of nuclear power for 30 years. The present
mismatch in uranium availability for operating reactors is a consequence of
poor planning, and inadequate prospecting and mining. There is talk of
importing 40,000 MW of nuclear power, which will cost not less than $100
billion or Rs. 4 lakh crores. If even 10% of this money were spent on
uranium mining in existing mines in Andhra Pradesh and Meghalaya, on
searching for new uranium deposits, and negotiating with non-NSG countries,
there will be enough uranium for a robust indigenous nuclear power
programme, until such time as thorium reactors takes over.

*The safeguards agreement with the IAEA guarantees fuel supplies even if
India conducts a nuclear test. *

The safeguards agreement only notes, in the preamble, that India's
concurrence to the safeguards is linked to getting fuel supplies. However,
the IAEA has no role in this matter, and certainly, no such commitment is
given in the safeguards agreement. It also notes that India may take
'corrective measures' in the event of a disruption of foreign fuel supplies.
It does not specify what these measures will be, it does not provide for any
role for the IAEA in this, and it does not bestow legitimacy on any such
measures that India may take. It may well be that any such measures that we
suggest, such as importing fuel from another country, will be disallowed by
the nuclear cartel (the NSG). The only tangible corrective measure is for
India to explore and mine more uranium, and to enhance the enrichment
capability to provide fuel for those reactors. The latter is subject to
uncertainty.

*The nuclear deal has no impact on our foreign policy.*

It prohibits India's cooperation on a number of issues involving Iran,
including its capability to reprocess nuclear fuel (in spite of the fact
that Iran, as an NPT signatory, has the right to enrich uranium for use in
light-water reactors). This has nothing to do with the nuclear deal, and can
only be related to influencing our foreign policy. Recent statements by Gary
Ackerman, Chairman of the US House Foreign Affairs Committee, regarding
Indo-Iran gas pipeline, only add fuel to such suspicions.

*It can therefore be seen, that the Indo-US nuclear deal is not in the
national interest. It presents the very serious danger of capping our
strategic programme. That alone is reason enough not to go forward with the
deal. Additionally, it does not guarantee the energy security that we are
seeking, and, in fact, may only end up making us as vulnerable to the
nuclear cartel, as we are today to the oil cartel. *

It is easy to see why the US wants this deal so badly. At virtually no cost,
since there is no commitment towards fuel supplies, they can cap our
strategic programme, bring us into the NPT net, through the back door, as a
non-nuclear power, keep a close eye on our nuclear activities, including
R&D, through intrusive IAEA inspections, and subjugate us to the wishes of
the nuclear cartel. If there were no cartel, we could have easily extended
the Kudankulam agreement for more reactors, and avoided the present
situation. Last but not the least, by this deal, the nuclear cartel will
dump their obsolete technology & materials in India thus making a neat gains
otherwise these are dead assets with them.

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

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